I'll be upfront: it's been three months since I last posted here, and a lot has happened. Not just background noise: a ceasefire that actually held for a while, the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, freight rates easing off, and now, as of this week, all of that reversing at once. If you've been relying on our news page to keep across this, I owe you a proper catch-up. So here it is: where we left off, what happened in between, and exactly where things stand for Australian freight right now.

WHERE WE LEFT OFF

Back on the 17th April, I wrote about Australia getting hit from every direction: the Geelong refinery fire, the Hormuz blockade, the fertiliser crisis, milk prices, jet fuel. It was a genuinely rough patch. What I didn't know then was that things were about to get a bit better before they got a lot worse again.

THE CEASEFIRE THAT ACTUALLY WORKED  FOR A WHILE

On the 14th June, the US and Iran agreed to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on 17th June, and CENTCOM formally lifted the naval blockade of Iranian ports the next day. Traffic actually came back: 20th June saw a two-month high in strait transits, mostly Chinese-flagged vessels finding their feet again after months of near-total avoidance.

For a good six weeks, this genuinely helped. Urea prices, which had spiked past $1,800 a tonne in some markets back in April, fell steadily as Middle Eastern fertiliser exports recovered, down to around $1,090–1,180 a tonne FCA Geelong by mid-June, and lower again into July. The Geelong refinery's damaged unit, the one that caught fire in April, came back online on 23rd June and, by early July, was running at above 90% of normal capacity. Diesel and petrol prices eased off their highs. For the first time since February, it felt like the market was heading toward something like normal.

AND THEN IT ALL CAME APART AGAIN

The ceasefire started fraying in late June and broke down completely over the second weekend of July. Iran fired on a commercial ship transiting the strait on 12th July and declared it closed “until further notice.” The US responded with strikes on Iran over that weekend and into Monday. On 13th July, Trump announced the naval blockade of Iranian ports would resume and, in the same breath, said the US would charge a 20% toll on cargo passing through the strait as the price of providing security. That toll didn't survive 24 hours: after pushback from Gulf allies, Trump dropped it before the blockade actually started.

The blockade came into effect at 4 pm ET on 14th July. Iran has continued striking shipping and regional targets, including attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and tankers transiting the strait. As of this week, shipping data shows Hormuz transits down by more than half from the week before. We are, in effect, back to where we were in March.

WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY

Brent crude is back above USD $83 a barrel, and it's flowing straight through to the surcharge structure rather than the headline rate. Carriers are reintroducing Peak Season Surcharges across the board as capacity tightens heading into the back half of the year, and Emergency Fuel Surcharges are back in play on top of that, reviewed weekly across most major lines. Between the two, expect surcharge line items to move more often than they have in months — we'll flag every change as it lands rather than let it surprise you on an invoice.

None of these stays contained in the Gulf. When vessels spend longer on Cape of Good Hope routing instead of transiting Suez or Hormuz, that capacity doesn't come back to service other trades and Australia, even on lanes that never went near the Gulf, feels the squeeze through tighter equipment and vessel availability everywhere.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET

Fuel.

This is where it gets complicated, because there are two separate things pushing prices up at once: Hormuz and our own fuel excise. The federal government's temporary excise relief was extended to the 2nd August, but the discount itself was halved from 32 cents a litre to 16 cents on the 1st July. That alone accounts for a chunk of the recent jump national average unleaded hit 170.1 cents a litre in the first week of July, up over 12 cents in a single week, with diesel averaging close to 192 cents. Add a reinstated blockade pushing crude back up, and the back half of July is not looking like it's heading in a cheaper direction.

Cabinet has to decide by 2 August whether to extend what's left of the excise cut or let it lapse entirely. Budget your freight costs on the assumption that fuel isn't getting materially cheaper this quarter.

Fertiliser.

This one genuinely worries me because we'd just started to see relief. Urea had fallen sharply through late June and into July as Hormuz reopened and Middle Eastern exporters came back online, down over a quarter from where it was a month earlier, according to some reports. If the blockade holds for any length of time, expect that trend to reverse. If you're importing fertiliser or you're a grower relying on supply for winter cropping, don't assume the softer prices from the past few weeks are the new normal; get ahead of it now rather than finding out the hard way in a month.

Reefer and perishables.

Lanes into the Middle East and the Mediterranean that had started to normalise are tightening again. We're currently seeing reefer transit times to destinations like Israel run anywhere from 60 to 80-plus days, depending on carrier and routing, simply because there's no direct option and everything is going the long way around via Singapore or further. If you've got temperature-sensitive cargo booked into that part of the world, talk to us before you lock in a sailing; the carrier that had capacity last week might not this week.

Surcharges.

EFS and EBS are back on the table across every major carrier on every AU/NZ trade lane, reviewed weekly. If your rate looked different a fortnight ago, this is why. We're not going to sugarcoat it: the surcharge environment is going to be as volatile over the next month as anything we saw back in March and April.

Biosecurity note.

Separately from all of this, DAFF's cost-recovery fee increases for imported food and biosecurity took effect from 1 July, and Moringa oleifera is now banned as a food import following FSANZ's rejection of its novel food application. If either of those touches your import book, get in touch, and we'll walk you through what's changed.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR IMPORTS AND EXPORTS RIGHT NOW

If you're moving cargo through the Middle East, the Mediterranean, or anywhere that routes via Suez or Hormuz, plan on Cape of Good Hope routing and the transit times that come with it. This isn't a short-term blip we're routing around; it's back to being the standard.

If you're exporting reefer or perishables into that part of the world, get your booking in earlier than you'd normally think necessary, and ask us about routing options before you commit to a sailing.

If you're importing fertiliser, don't wait for the market to tell you prices are rising again before you act; talk to your supply chain now.

Check your war risk insurance cover again if you haven't since April. Standard cargo policies typically exclude it, and cover has come on and off the table more than once this year, depending on how the conflict is tracking.

Quotes are moving fast right now. What we can offer you today may not be available next week. Talk to us before you confirm anything.

OUR COMMITMENT TO YOU

I'll be honest, I let this page go quiet for longer than I should have, partly because for a few weeks things genuinely looked like they were improving and there wasn't much new to report. That's not an excuse for going three months without an update, and I want to do better on that front. We're back to watching this daily, and we'll keep this page current for as long as the situation calls for it.

Our job is to make your job easier. Right now, that means being straight with you about what's actually happening and helping you plan around it, not just reacting to it.

If you've got a shipment moving, a quote you need, or you just want to understand how any of this affects your specific supply chain, call us or send us an email. That's exactly what we're here for.

Daniel Fanning

Managing Director  D&D Worldwide Logistics Pty Ltd

daniel@ddwlogistics.com | +61 3 5222 2579 | www.ddwlogistics.com